I think now it is time to revisit my predictions regarding browser support for HTML5 and CSS3. In the previous writing (see below), I noted that IE9 was poised to push out (significantly) non-conforming IE7 and IE8 within a period that I predicted to be a little more than a year. Of course, even then, IE6 was not even a concern as it is widely regarded as a dead browser - today it stands with approximately less than half of 1 percent of browsers currently in use around the world.
The importance of pushing out IE7 and IE8 were notable because of their lack of support for HTML5 and CSS3 while almost every other browser (particularly mobile browsers) do a fine job of supporting the new standard. If IE7 and IE8 will finally vanish from desktops we will be able to employ HTML5 and CSS3 without worrying *the hacks* that have plagued web design for the last decade. We will be able to design great looking websites with much better functionality and we will be able to do it easily and quickly.
So, how about some statistics? Has IE9 eclipsed both IE8 and IE7 as I had predicted?
Once again I am using statistics courtesy of StatCounter. Statistics can be misleading but for our purposes now we are just looking at general trends. The most important trend we can see from the chart is IE9's meteoric rise as it cannibalized IE8 through automatic updates from Microsoft. By June 2012, the year and little bit that I had predicted, share of IE9 had eclipsed all those of it's former versions combined.
During the same period Google Chrome also enjoyed a parallel stellar rise partially fueled by IE6 and IE7 users fed up with a crappy browser and no upgrade path. If you have Windows XP you are not supported by Microsoft and new browser additions are not available to you. In my opinion that is not only a shame for Microsoft but a strategic boo boo.
Then there is the matter of the steadily increasing mobile market with increasingly larger screens. I've had the chance to preview a few iPads and Android tablets and I have been so impressed with the browsing experience that is clearly just getting better with time. It is widely believed that people will eventually abandon desktop computers for tablets out of sheer convenience. The statistics agree but point out a long protracted battle:
The only question remains is poised by those companies and web designers who think it is smart to try and please everybody by designing for each browser, no matter how clear and impending is their inevitable demise. I do my best to explain that supporting IE6/7/8 is pointless - a huge effort that will only be enjoyed by 15% of the browsing population today and dwindling rapidly.
It's a question of "who". Who are these people still using IE6/7/8 ? I insist that these users are the least likely of buyers, even if you bend over backwards to try to serve them. Here is my summary:
IE8 User - a person who has opted specifically to deny the IE9 update. They just really want to keep IE8 possibly because:
- bandwidth - they live in the middle of nowhere or they are frugal or both
- they are resistant to change
- they are technically confused and/or challenged
Another subset of this group is Latin America where internet cafe's are the place where most young people get there dose of internet (these days its mostly facebook chatting, formerly MSN chatting). These internet cafes have largely pirate software, almost always Windows XP. Because they have pirate versions, they are not able to upgrade the browser and they version is actually only IE6. Because of this, I believe, you will find Google Chrome hugely popular in South America. But you can still find crusty little internet cafe's with creaky old computers running IE6 in small towns in this part of the world.
Note: there were (a few years ago) several small portable solid-state memory notebooks on the market that were kind of cool. They came with XP only because of the small footprint that didn't hog up the limited solid-state memory. Because there are no spinning parts in a hard-drive, the batteries last forever, they're small but still have a pretty good sized keyboard and screen and are awesome for traveling. But anyone owning one of those had the sense to install Chrome or Firefox.
When you compare the remaining IE6/7/8 users you find the following commonalities:
they are frugal (old?)
they are resistant to change (old?)
they are technically confused or challenged (old?)
they are financially limited (young? old? developing nation?)
The conclusion I draw is that these people do not buy things from the internet unless you are selling funeral services, collectible figurines, or ring-tones. In my experience, you are forced to double your expenditure to support design websites for these IE6/7/8 users. I insist you will not realize a benefit for the added effort unless you are specifically targeting older americans.
Instead, lets push this group to upgrade their buggy, security-flawed, unsupported browser to Firefox or Chrome or Opera or Safari! And now, lets design for HTML5 and CSS3. Remember also, Microsoft is coming out with IE10 which will certainly drive back IE8 within 14 months (another prediction that I will revisit - hopefully with good news that the last of the holdouts has converted). Imagine it this way - you spend a whole bunch of time and money *hacking* a website together to support IE8 and below and it all becomes irrelevant in 14 months. After 14 months all the *hacks* become useless and just slow your website down. Why would you do this to your new project? Don't you want to create a website that lasts technically and aesthetically? Of course you do! So lets just admit that HTML4 is dead and lets move on :)
The old article from May 2011
Today I received a windows update that included internet explorer version 9 as an important update. In years past that would have made me cringe however, since IE9 is now (perhaps), as standards compliant as Chrome or Firefox I have great reason to welcome this push. What this means is that all machines running versions since Vista (IE7) will now receive IE9 through the windows update mechanism.
By replacing these versions of IE7 and IE8, Microsoft is greatly affecting the percentage of computers that are HTML5 and CSS3 standards compliant (or close enough). As of May 1st, 2011, wikipedia reports IE usage numbers from statcounter at 42% http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser_version-ww-monthly-201004-201104
| April 10 - 11 2011 | |
|---|---|
| browser | share |
| IE | 42.14% |
| Firefox | 30.22% |
| Chrome | 19.85% |
| Safari | 5.17% |
| Opera | 1.94% |
| Mobile | 5.69% |
Today, taking into account the browsers that can support HTML5 and CSS3 (Firefox, Chrome, Safari, to-a-lesser-degree Opera, and about 50% of the mobile market with Android and Apple handhelds) we have approximately 60% of browsers capable of handling much of the standards.
If we extrapolate the trends of browser adoption to include IE9, we should see that percentage jump to near 80% within a year and perhaps 90% in 2 years. Fair enough, today only 60% of browsers can enjoy the snazziness of websites crafted using the new standards. But the new standards degrade gracefully - they are simply not seen in older browsers.
So big deal - that old IE6 browser on your auntie's aging desktop with the 14 inch monitor can't view the new fancy new rounded borders or gradient backgrounds or custom fonts - do you think she really cares? If she did, she would have bought a new laptop by now...
What is more important is that a growing majority of people will be able to view some slick new websites delivered fast without all the old hacks and image tricks that slow your site down. Why don't you ask yourself which is more important - to send out a slower website that chews bandwidth and doesn't necessarily look *that* great but it looks the same for everybody... Or, send out a site that is brisk to download and looks fantastic for those that actually give a damn and bother to update their browsers?
The people who don't care about updating their browsers probably don't even care about the plainer version of your site anyway. Besides, their hard drive is about to bite the dust next month and they'll be viewing your site a fancy new laptop or iPad anyway... let's just design HTML5 CSS3 websites now and recommend to users older non-compliant browsers to get an update or change over to a competitor's browser. Why not just suggest to these users that they can view your site in all it's glory by making a switch to a new browser? We can speed the process of HTML5 and CSS3 adoption if we do...
